Paul Kedrosky

Read this first

Tech Bubbles, FOMO & Revenge Effects

What are we missing in all the chatter about fear of missing out (FOMO), scarcity, and the current technology bubble among late-stage private companies? I’ll posit a few things, some obvious, some less so, and a couple deranged and hypothetical:

  1. Lots of people took this 2001 bumper sticker very seriously: please give me one more bubble bumper sticker - Google Search.jpg Knowing that most of the money is made by being early to prominent tech IPOs, they did the rational thing: They bought earlier. In this case, not just early, but pre-IPO – in late-stage, private markets. One reason we are seeing this incredible rush to buy overpriced companies in private markets is fear of missing out on the appreciation when the companies come public. As a result, the post-IPO price appreciation is happening pre-IPO, making private companies back-door public – except, as Bill Gurley has written, in the ways that matter most, like liquidity, quality of financials,...

Continue reading →

Music and Innovation and Teams

The following tweet after the Grammy music awards got me thinking:

Producers, writers, and teams

Granted, I know zero about music. And I know even less about the Grammys. But the idea that albums up for record of the year had such dramatic differences in the number of people behind them was striking.

Leaving aside the sniping about whether larger producer/writing teams is somehow discrediting – some argued that Beck was a more legitimate winner because he was the auteur, unlike with Beyoncé – I was curious whether this was new. Innovation has become a team activity in many areas of economic and artistic life, so is that also the case with music?

I decided to look at the annual list of top-selling albums back to the 1960s. How many writers & producers were behind them? Sadly, it wasn’t easy to find how many songwriters were involved, but it was fairly straightforward to scrape Wikipedia data on the number of...

Continue reading →